'Trump Risk' K-Battery... What should I do with IRA subsidies that I was looking at 10 trillion won

[KOREA FINANCIAL TIMES, Gwak Horyung] Domestic battery companies are feeling the pinch as U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump looks increasingly likely to win the November election. Trump has campaigned on repealing the IRA incentive, which is estimated to have cost domestic battery companies $10 trillion in losses.

In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek on Saturday (U.S. time), the president said of the IRA, “Electric vehicles are great,” but “we can't go 100 percent electric.”

He had previously pledged to repeal the IRA subsidy early last year, saying he would “end the Biden electric vehicle mandate” in Agenda Item 47 of his re-election campaign.
The IRA, which was implemented by the Biden administration in 2022, provides subsidies of up to $7500 for EVs that are finalized in North America.

The IRA also included an incentive for battery manufacturers, the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (AMPC). It provides $45 per kWh of North American-made battery cells and modules in EVs sold locally.



Korean battery companies have benefited directly from the AMPC.

LG Energy Solutions received an AMPC subsidy of 67.68 billion won last year. This year, the benefit amounted to 188.9 billion won in the first quarter and 447.8 billion won in the second quarter. The subsidies have helped the company narrowly avoid operating losses.
SK energy also recognized AMPC benefits totaling 61.7 billion won last year. In the first quarter of this year, the subsidy was reduced to 38.5 billion won due to the suspension of Ford F150 Lightning production, resulting in a large operating loss of 300 billion won.

Samsung SDI also announced that it recognized 46.7 billion won in AMPC subsidies in the first quarter. Samsung SDI does not yet have a battery cell manufacturing plant in the US. It is believed to have won the subsidy solely by supplying the US battery pack production facility to the US electric car company Livian.

Under the assumption that the EV market rebounds, the AMPC subsidy is expected to be even larger. Three domestic battery makers have announced large-scale expansion investments in the US. The industry estimates that the three companies' AMPC benefits could reach KRW 10 trillion in 2025 and KRW 20 trillion in 2026.

It is not an exaggeration to say that the U.S. subsidies will determine whether domestic battery companies, which have been struggling with slowing demand for electric vehicles, can rebound dramatically.
Battery companies are also keeping a close eye on Trump's re-election. Polls show Trump's chances of winning re-election have risen significantly to between 60 and 70 percent after he was shot during a campaign rally last week.

Gwak Horyung (horr@fntimes.com)