미 연준, 기준금리 1.00~1.25%로↑…"하반기 추가인상"

[한국금융신문 정선은 기자] 미국 연준(Fed)이 14일(현지시간) 예상대로 0.25%포인트 금리인상을 단행했다.

연준은 이날 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의를 열고 정책금리를 기존 0.75~1.00%에서 0.25%포인트 인상했다. 지난 3월에 0.25%포인트를 올린 뒤 올해 들어 두 번째 인상이다.

미국 기준금리 밴드는 이로써 1.00~1.25%로 상향됐다. 금리 상단이 한국 기준금리(1.25%)와 동일하게 됐다.
연준은 성명에서 금리인상 배경으로 "미국의 실업률(4.3%)이 떨어지고 양호한 성장을 지속하고 있다"고 설명했다.

연준은 이날 지난 3월에 내놓은 올해 세 차례 금리인상 전망 경로를 유지했다. 올 연말까지 예상 기준금리를 1.4%로 시사해 하반기 한 차례 추가 금리 인상을 예고했다. 9월 또는 12월 미국 금리 추가 인상 가능성이 커졌다.

또 연준은 미국 경제가 예상대로 성장할 경우 연내 4조5000억달러 규모의 보유자산을 축소하겠다는 뜻도 공식화 했다. 연준의 대차대조표를 불린 국채와 주택저당증권(MBS)의 보유 규모를 줄이면 금리인상과 유사한 양적 긴축 효과가 발생하게 된다.

다음은 6월 FOMC 성명서 전문.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has picked up in recent months, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, inflation has declined recently and, like the measure excluding food and energy prices, is running somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. This program, which would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities, is described in the accompanying addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; and Jerome H. Powell. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.



정선은 기자 bravebambi@fntimes.com